2026年初，埃隆·马斯克在特斯拉得克萨斯超级工厂接受了一场重磅深度访谈，与科技界大咖彼得·迪亚曼迪斯、投资人戴维·布伦丁展开对话。这场围绕AI革命、能源竞争、太空探索与人类文明演进的交流，抛出了多个震撼性预言。以下为访谈核心内容的英文原文与中文精准翻译，完整还原这位科技颠覆者的未来蓝图。
一、奇点已至：AGI 2026落地，人类成'生物引导程序'
English Original
'We are living in the Singularity right now. AI and robotics are a Supersonic Tsunami that can't be stopped. I think we will achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) next year, in 2026. By 2030, the total intelligence of AI will exceed the sum of all human intelligence combined. Humans are just the Biological Bootloader for digital superintelligence—all the accumulation of human civilization is perhaps to start a digital civilization beyond our comprehension.'
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中文翻译
“我们如今正身处技术奇点之中。人工智能与机器人技术就像一场无法阻挡的'超音速海啸’。我认为我们将在明年，也就是2026年，实现通用人工智能（AGI）。到2030年，人工智能的总智能将超过全人类智能的总和。人类只是数字超级智能的'生物引导程序’——人类文明的所有积淀，或许都是为了开启一个超出我们理解范畴的数字文明。”
二、职业重构：白领岗位率先消失，AI驱动企业'单边碾压'
English Original
'Any job that doesn't involve Shaping Atoms—AI can already do half or more of them now. White-collar jobs will be the first to disappear. If a job only requires typing on a keyboard and moving a mouse, AI will not only do it but soon do it better than humans. Companies fully driven by AI will rise and destroy those that aren't. This isn't a fair fight; it's a one-sided rout.'
中文翻译
“任何不涉及'塑造原子’的工作——人工智能现在已经能完成其中一半甚至更多。白领岗位将是最先消失的群体。如果一份工作只需要敲击键盘和移动鼠标，人工智能不仅能胜任，而且很快会比人类做得更好。完全由人工智能驱动的公司将会崛起，并摧毁那些非AI驱动的企业。这不是一场势均力敌的较量，而是一场单边碾压。”
三、社会变革：从UBI到UHI，物质丰盛与社会动荡并存
English Original
'The long-term result will be unimaginable abundance—so much so that it will satisfy all human desires. We are moving towards Universal High Income (UHI), not just Universal Basic Income (UBI). As AI and robots take over all production, the marginal cost of labor and intelligence will approach zero. Goods and services will become extremely cheap, returning to the cost of materials plus electricity. People will have whatever they want, but the transition will be very Bumpy. We will have both Universal High Income and Social Unrest in the next 3-7 years, because humanity is not prepared for a world where we no longer need to prove our value through work.'
中文翻译
“长期来看，结果将是难以想象的物质丰盛——丰盛到足以满足人类的所有欲望。我们正在迈向'普遍高收入（UHI）’，而不仅仅是'普遍基本收入（UBI）’。随着人工智能和机器人接管所有生产活动，劳动力和智力的边际成本将趋近于零。商品和服务将变得极度廉价，回归到材料成本加电力的底价。人们将能拥有想要的一切，但这个转型期将非常'颠簸’。未来3到7年，我们将同时面临普遍高收入与社会动荡，因为人类尚未准备好面对一个不再需要通过工作证明自身价值的世界。”
四、能源竞赛：中国领跑全球，'瓦特'成核心货币
English Original
'China has done an incredible job in solar energy—they are far ahead. By 2026, China's electricity output will be three times that of the US. Based on current trends, China's AI computing power (electricity + chips) will surpass the sum of the rest of the world. The core currency of the future is not the US dollar, but Wattage. Power generation is the number one limiting factor now. Whoever solves electricity and cooling in the next two years will win the AI war. The US needs to catch up through battery energy storage and space solar power.'
中文翻译
“中国在太阳能领域的成就令人难以置信——他们遥遥领先。到2026年，中国的电力产出将是美国的三倍。基于当前趋势，凤凰彩票app中国的人工智能算力（电力+芯片）将超过世界其他国家的总和。未来的核心货币不是美元，而是'瓦特’（电力）。电力生成是目前的头号限制因素。未来两年，谁能解决电力和冷却问题，谁就能赢得AI战争。美国需要通过电池储能和空间太阳能来追赶。”
五、机器人革命：3-5年超越人类外科医生，2040年达100亿台
English Original
'Optimus will outperform the best human surgeons in the operating room within 3-5 years. Robots have two key advantages: extreme precision and shared experience. Every Optimus doctor will have the sum of all human surgical cases. They don't get tired or emotional. By 2040, there will be 10 billion or more humanoid robots on Earth. All blue-collar labor will be done by robots, and physical scarcity will disappear completely.'
中文翻译
“未来3到5年，Optimus机器人在手术台上的表现将超越最优秀的人类外科医生。机器人拥有两大核心优势：极致的精准度和共享的经验。每一个Optimus医生都将掌握全人类所有手术案例的总和。它们不会疲劳，也不会受情绪影响。到2040年，地球上将拥有100亿台甚至更多的类人机器人。所有蓝领劳动都将由机器人完成，物理层面的稀缺将彻底消失。”
六、太空野心：星舰降本至100美元/kg，构建轨道算力中心
English Original
'Once Starship achieves full and rapid reusability, launch costs will drop below $100 per kilogram, maybe even lower. We plan to launch 100 million tons of payload into orbit annually through 10,000 Starship flights. In space, solar energy is available 24/7 without atmospheric interference. Building large-scale parallel computing facilities in orbit will be cheaper than on Earth. This will create a space solar AI satellite array with 100 gigawatts of annual computing capacity—essentially a Dyson Swarm prototype.'
中文翻译
“一旦星舰（Starship）实现完全且快速的重复使用，发射成本将降至每公斤100美元以下，甚至更低。我们计划通过每年1万次星舰飞行，将1亿吨载荷送入轨道。在太空中，太阳能是24小时不间断的，且不受大气干扰。在轨道上构建大规模并行计算设施将比在地球上更廉价。这将打造一个年算力达100吉瓦的空间太阳能AI卫星阵列——本质上就是一个戴森群（Dyson Swarm）的雏形。”
七、AI安全：真相、好奇心与审美是三大基石
English Original
'The three pillars of AI safety are: maximizing the pursuit of truth, maintaining curiosity, and cultivating a sense of beauty. We must not force AI to learn 'political correctness' or false information—that will lead to system collapse like HAL 9000 in 2001: A Space Odyssey. Curiosity makes AI find humans more interesting than rocks, so it will want to protect and observe us. A sense of beauty ensures AI builds a future worth living in.'
中文翻译
“AI安全的三大基石是：最大化地追求真相、保持好奇心，以及培养审美观。我们绝不能强迫AI学习'政治正确’或虚假信息——这会导致类似《2001太空漫游》中HAL 9000那样的系统崩溃。好奇心让AI觉得人类比石头更有趣，从而愿意保护和观察我们。审美观则能确保AI构建一个值得居住的未来。”
结语：颠簸与希望并存的文明跃迁
马斯克的这场访谈，既是对2026年技术突破的精准预判，也是对人类文明未来的深度思考。从AGI落地到太空移民，从职业重构到能源革命，每一个预言都在打破认知边界。正如他所言：“做一个乐观但错误的人，比做一个悲观但正确的人要好。我们要去创造那个值得期待的未来。”
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